Top Retail Theft Trends to Look Out for in 2025

With retail theft leading to multiple store closures, including that of big-name retailers, Walmart and Safeway, this is one of the biggest challenges for the industry.

Staying ahead of thieves is difficult, however with the impact of retail theft only expected to worsen, understanding the type of trends to expect and how to tackle them could help you avoid becoming a victim to such crime.

What is Retail Theft?

Retail theft is the act of stealing merchandise from a store having not purchased said items. It also covers other retail crimes including money fraud, burglary, and vandalism.

By 2026, shoplifting alone could cost retailers over $150 billion according to Capital One Shopping, displaying the devastating impact it has on both small and big businesses.

Along with this rise, there have been a number of incidents reported where customers have become violent and aggressive towards employees, at times even assaulting them. A common trigger linked to this behavior is retail theft.

The Reason Behind the Rise in Retail Theft

Economic hardship and inflation are two of the main contributors linked to the surge in retail theft with USA Today reporting that 90% of recent shoplifters said they steal because of this. 

Breakdown figures show that 34% of shoplifters rely on stealing because prices have otherwise become unaffordable, with 30% attributing it to helping them make ends meet, and 27% due to saving money.

Additionally, struggles for some businesses have led to staff reductions which has allowed some stores to likely be overpowered by thieves or be unable to manage active situations due to employee numbers. 

And as the number of employees decreases for some retailers, the heavy use of self-checkout kiosks could actually be benefitting thieves without you even knowing. 

Overall, the economic changes and business adjustments all contribute in some manner to the uncontrollable issue faced by most stores nowadays.

4 Retail Theft Trends to Watch Out for in 2025 and How to Tackle Them

With 20-years of expertise in parking lot surveillance solutions and having supported retail store parking lots such as Goodwill Industries Kentucky, LotGuard products provide a proactive approach to crime.

Therefore, using this knowledge, we look into the top 4 retail trends we expect to see in 2025 and how you can tackle them by utilizing LotGuard’s security solutions:

Smash-and-Grabs

A smash-and-grab theft is a specific type of shoplifting or looting where the thief or thieves will smash a form of physical barrier such as a window, grab as many valuables as possible, and then proceed to make a speedy exit. 

Considered one of the most brazen types of retail crime, smash-and-grab theft cost US stores $112.1 billion in 2022 according to NRF. 

Committing crime under darkness may still be popular, however, with economic changes and inflation having impacted most states, the fear of having their identity revealed can be forgotten due to their determination for financial benefit.

LotGuard’s Response:

Smash-and-grab theft is often based on speed, therefore your security response needs to match this. 

Many traditional surveillance cameras will simply record the incident that can be used to support any future legal proceedings or to identify individuals. This provides a retrospective response to security which may not be suitable for smash-and-grabs.

Utilizing a proactive and reactive security solution, like the LotGuard PRO Surveillance Trailer in your retail parking lot helps to quickly assess and respond to threats appropriately, increasing the chance of intercepting crime as it happens.

Backed by remote monitoring services, experts will be able to act fast and contact all those needed including Law Enforcement, boosting the chances of catching the criminals involved and stolen products.

Also, by placing an external surveillance solution in your parking lot, the live monitoring capabilities and LPR camera offering can be added onto our products to capture vehicle details and support the identification of those involved.

Vehicle and Personal Property Theft

According to a survey by LendingTree, 52% of shoplifters target large chain stores, making them one of the biggest targets for thieves. However, as much as that places your retail store at risk, this also places your parking lot at risk too.

Larger retailers will often have larger parking lots and unfortunately this provides thieves with some security both inside and outside the store. 

With a high number of vehicles utilising this space, criminals may target vehicles and personal property if the opportunity is available for them to do so. 

Due to economic uncertainty, the number of retail thefts is likely to increase in 2025, with associated parking lots faced with even bigger security challenges due to the large, vast, open spaces they operate on.

LotGuard’s Response:

Parking lot security is Lotguard’s expertise and we understand the unique challenges retail store parking lots face in particular. 

The risk to vehicles and personal property is just as great as that faced by the store directly, especially under darkness. The high number of vehicles combined with the vast, open space leaves security management difficult for them.

However, with our 20-years of experience, we have built products with high-quality video monitoring, PTZ technology, and zoom-in capabilities that allow us to manage such spaces. 

Alongside this, our Surveillance Trailers are specifically designed to offer a crime deterrence factor also. Standing up to 20 ft tall, they create a bold presence that strips that sense of security off criminals and removes their hiding abilities.

Organized Retail Crime

Opportunist thieves are no longer the biggest concern for retail stores in 2025, with Organized Retail Crime (ORC) becoming more popular in recent years. 

This is a type of organized crime where professional criminals work in teams to steal merchandise based on an ‘order’ placed with them or where they see demand. 

By utilizing this enhanced style of shoplifting, thieves can steal in bulk or larger quantities, allowing them to rake in bigger financial rewards whilst remaining undetected through expert planning and organisation.

LotGuard’s Response:

ORC are often well-thought out attacks where criminals have scoped out the retail store beforehand, prior to starting their shoplifting spree. 

Our Surveillance Trailers can specifically support you throughout all stages of such crime. Firstly by creating criminal deterrence through their presence, to assessing and managing threats, and following up with high-quality video evidence to support any criminal proceedings.

Theft rings involved with ORC are able to steal large quantities of product at one time, therefore, the importance of prevention is vital in providing your business with a sense of financial security.

Insider Theft

The cost of living crisis hits both customers and employees, meaning that security threats can be hidden in plain sight, working in your store. 

Due to this economic uncertainty, this could lead to an increased risk of insider theft in 2025 as employees may also be presented with financial challenges and hardship. 

Insider theft could involve the theft of data or physical product for their own advantage, often for financial gain or for information in return. 

Items such as packed meat, razor blades, alcohol, and cosmetics are high-demand products, and some employees may utilize this knowledge to benefit themselves, leaving your store with not only the financial loss but a fear of distrust amongst employees.

LotGuard’s Response:

As much as the actual theft will take place directly in the store, employees will need to travel to and from work, making external security just as important as internal surveillance. This ensures that movement can be tracked and any suspicious activity recorded where the risk of insider theft is present. 

The benefit of LotGuard’s Surveillance Trailers is that they both create criminal deterrence by letting employees know that security is present whilst recording activity 24/7 that you can monitor yourself and assess any behavior if you wish to do so.

Our fully-managed service allows you to be as hands-free or hands-on as you like. You understand your employees most and by having the ability to monitor footage yourself as well as having support from security experts, this will help reduce the likelihood of you becoming a victim to such crime.

Secure Your Retail Parking Lot with LotGuard

With predictions showing that retail theft is likely to grow and create worsening financial implications for stores, it can only be expected that 2025 could leave many businesses facing increased security challenges surrounding this.

At LotGuard we aim to reduce those risks and prevent crime at your retail store and within your parking lot, helping you to maintain a successful business that supports and is trusted by your community and those who visit. 

Security is central to the survival of brick-and-mortar retail stores, therefore it is key that you prioritize this for 2025. 

Get in touch with one of our surveillance experts to find out how we can support your retail parking lot today!

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